Issues in the International Community

Section 1 Trends in Regional Conflict and International Terrorism (With a Focus on the Middle East and Africa)

1. General Situation
In a global security environment, there is a growing risk that unrest or a security problem in a single country or region could immediately develop into a security challenge or destabilizing factor for the entire international community.

The conflicts occurring in recent years in various parts of the world are not necessarily of the same nature. An array of problems is at the root of conflicts, including ethnicity, religion, territory, and resources. The impacts of climate change and other global issues have also been suggested as causes of conflicts1. Conflicts can take diverse forms, from armed conflicts, to the continuation of military standoffs. Furthermore, human rights violations, refugees, hunger, poverty, and other consequences of conflicts can have impacts affecting not only the countries in the conflict but also a wider area. In many cases, areas where civil wars or regional conflicts have created or expanded a governance vacuum have become a hotbed of the activities of terrorist organizations. Among them are organizations which operate across national borders and regions, which continue to pose imminent security challenges to the international community. The presence of states with weak governance has made it difficult to tackle risks such as the explosive outbreak and spread of infectious diseases.
1 The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) released by the U.S. Department of Defense in March 2014 regards climate change as one of key factors that will shape the future security environment. It claims that climate change may accelerate instability and conflict by causing water scarcity, sharp increases in food costs, and other effects. In addition, the Summary for Policymakers in the Working Group II report on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability of the Fifth Assessment Report which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in the same month described that climate change may indirectly increase the risk of conflict by exacerbating poverty and other causes of conflict.
2 The Arab Spring is a term generally used to refer to the series of democratization movements that were undertaken on a full-fledged basis in Middle Eastern and North African countries starting in early 2011, causing political regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. In 2011, Tunisia held National Constituent Assembly elections for creating a new constitution, which was adopted by the assembly in January 2014. In December, Beji Caid Essebsi took office as President following the election results. Libya held General National Congress elections for the establishment of a new

In these circumstances, especially in states with unstable political situations and weak governance, which are often found in the Middle East and Africa, border control is inadequate, and the cross-border movement of terrorist organization members, weapons, as well as narcotics that are a funding source for terrorist organizations present threats to the region. Furthermore, this region has seen renewed fighting even after a temporary ceasefire is achieved pursuant to a peace agreement or other arrangements between the parties in conflict. The “Arab Spring”2, which grew into a full-scale
constitution in July 2012, but its democratization process including formulation of a new constitution still faces a variety of challenges.
3 ISIL is an outgrowth of Al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), an Al-Qaeda terrorist organization which was established in 2004 in Iraq.
4 See Paragraph 3 for home-grown and lone-wolf terrorism
5 As of the end of March 2015, 16 U.N. PKOs have been established globally, involving about 107,000 military and police personnel and about 17,000 civilian personnel from 120 countries. Out of these PKOs, there are 12 operations in the Middle East and Africa. Ten U.N. PKOs are granted robust authority by Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter. (See Fig. I-2-1-1)
movement in 2011, encouraged transitions to democratic systems in countries in the Middle East and North Africa. However, political turmoil associated with the change in government created clashes between tribes, religions, and political parties, and these clashes have still not ended in some countries. The underlying factors are deemed to include public dissatisfaction, especially among young people, with economic and social disparities as well as with high unemployment rates. Furthermore, in developed countries, such as the United States and European countries, there has been a rise in young people who sympathize with the extremism of international terrorist organizations, including the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)3 that has gained strength in Iraq and Syria, against the backdrop of dissatisfaction towards estrangement from society, discrimination, poverty, and disparities. In an increasing number of cases, these people have joined the activities of international terrorist organizations as fighters and conduct “home-grown” and “lone-wolf”4 terrorism activities in their countries, which in turn have heightened the risk of terrorism in developed countries. In countries, such as Mali, Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the people’s dissatisfaction with politics and economics under their weak governance systems as well as clashes over territories and resources have caused conflicts. The rapid and vast outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa in 2014 threatened the stability of the affected countries and spread the disease to other countries including the West, shedding light on the seriousness of the risk posed by the spread of infectious diseases.

It has become increasingly important for the international community to examine the shape of tailored international frameworks and involvement measures, and seek out appropriate responses for addressing these complicated and diverse destabilizing factors.

The end of the Cold War was accompanied by rising expectations for peacekeeping efforts, and, as a result, many U.N. peacekeeping operations (PKOs) were established. Their missions has recently come to include a wide range of activities including those by civilians and police, encompassing such traditional roles as the monitoring of a ceasefire or military withdrawal as well as the monitoring of disarmament, the reform of the security sector, the monitoring of elections and administrative activities, and humanitarian assistance (e.g. return of refugees to their homeland). In this situation, the importance of the roles related to the protection of civilians and peace-building increases, leading to activities with greater authorization granted by Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter5. At the same time U.N. PKO, faces challenges including the availability of required equipment, the protection of
personnel safety, and the improvement of troop capabilities6.
6 “A New Partnership Agenda Charting a New Horizon For U.N. Peacekeeping” was published in July 2009 to evaluate major policy and strategic dilemmas faced by U.N. PKOs and discuss solutions among stakeholders.
7 The world’s largest regional organization comprised of 54 countries and regions in Africa. It was established in July 2002 by reorganizing the Organization of African Unity (OAU) (established in May 1963). Its objectives include achieving the integration and solidarity of African nations and people, accelerating political, economic, and social integration of Africa, and promoting peace, security, and stability in Africa.
8 For example, organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union are implementing initiatives in countries including Somalia and Mali.
9 According to an announcement by the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights in August 2014, the clashes in Syria killed more than 191,000 people. Some estimates have said that more than 310,000 people have been killed as of May 2015. Since the start of the Syrian civil war, over 10 million people have become refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs).
See ▶ Fig. I-2-1-1 (List of Peacekeeping Operations)

In addition to the U.N. PKO framework, multinational forces and regional organizations authorized by the U.N. Security Council engage in conflict prevention, peacekeeping, and peace-building. In Africa, such regional organizations as the African Union (AU)7 roll out their activities based on resolutions by the U.N. Security Council and their activities are sometimes handed over to U.N. PKO later. The international community also offers recommendations and training assistance and supplies equipment from a long-term perspective, prompting African nations to help themselves so that they can enhance local governance organizations and improve the capabilities of their military and security organizations8. Furthermore, the entire international community is undertaking various efforts in response to the rise of ISIL, including the adoption of a U.N. Security Council resolution to prevent the international movement of terrorist fighters, military actions such as the United States-led Coalition’s airstrikes on ISIL, and humanitarian assistance by partner countries that support the counter-terrorism effort.


2. Current Situation of Regional Conflicts and the International Response

1 Situation in Syria and Iraq

(1) Political turmoil and chemical weapons issue in Syria
In Syria, since March 2011, the government has mobilized military and security forces in multiple cities as a result of the outbreak of anti-government demonstrations across the country calling for democratization and the resignation of President Assad. The clashes between the military and the opposition parties continue to take place throughout the country9.

Under these circumstances, in August 2013, chemical weapons were used in the suburbs of Syria’s capital city Damascus, which killed many civilians. Following this attack, U.S. President Barack Obama who had stated previously that the use of chemical weapons would cross a red line, assessed
that the Syrian government used chemical weapons10. The President stated he decided that military action should be taken against the Assad administration, further heightening military tension. Russia, on the other hand, opposed military action and asserted that Syria’s chemical weapons be transferred to the control of the international community. The Syrian government accepted Russia’s proposal. In September 2013, following negotiations between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov of Russia, the United States and Russia agreed on a framework which demanded that the Syrian government declare its chemical weapons stockpiles as well as accept international inspections, aimed at the complete destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. The Syrian government submitted a list of its chemical weapons stockpile to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and took responses which were set out in the framework, including accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention. Due to these responses, military action by the United States and other countries against the Assad administration was averted. Pursuant to OPCW decisions and related U.N. Security Council resolution, international efforts were made to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons11. The work to destroy the weapons, which was carried out on the U.S. government’s transport vessel Cape Ray, was completed in August 201412.
10 In August 2013, the United States assessed with “high confidence” that the Assad administration carried out a chemical weapons attack, on the basis of all-source analyses based on human intelligence, signals, and open source reporting, among other intelligence.
11 In November 2013, OPCW decided with respect to Syrian chemical weapons: (1) for unfilled munitions: destruction on Syrian territory not later than January 31, 2014; (2) for mustard agent and the key binaries (chemical components) of sarin and VX: removal from Syrian territory not later than December 31, 2013; (3) for other chemicals: removal from Syrian territory not later than February 5, 2014; and (4) for the residual mustard agent in containers previously containing mustard agent: destruction not later than March 1, 2014; among other items. With respect to the schedule for the destruction of chemical weapons outside Syrian territory, OPCW decided: (1) for mustard agent and the key binaries of sarin and VX: beginning of destruction as soon as possible with destruction not later than March 31, 2014, and destruction of any resulting reaction mass by a date to be agreed by the Council, based on the Director-General’s recommendation; and (2) for all other chemicals: beginning of destruction as soon as possible with completion of destruction not later than June 30, 2014; among other items. In February 2015, OPCW announced that the destruction of 98% of Syria’s declared chemicals was completed.
12 See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 2, Paragraph 2 for the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria

However, the United States, the European Union (EU), and other countries are requesting President Assad to step down and are imposing successive sanctions against Syria, including an oil embargo. Although these countries have expressed support for the Syrian National Coalition established as an opposition party in November 2012, no strides have been made in the dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition parties.

In January 2014, while the first direct peace talks between the Assad administration and the opposition parties were held under the mediation of the U.N., the talks achieved no concrete progress. Although President Assad won a landslide victory in the June 2014 presidential election, the United States and European countries have criticized that the reelection of President Assad interfered with the settlement of the conflict. In January 2015, peace talks on Syria were convened for the first time in nearly one year with the mediation of Russia. However, the Syrian National Coalition and other
groups did not participate, and the talks merely confirmed the basic principles and failed to achieve concrete progress. In May 2015, individual talks between Staffan de Mistura, U.N. Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Syria, and relevant countries commenced in Geneva. While both the Assad government and the opposition parties are participating to realize a political settlement to the conflict, the outcome of the talks is uncertain.

(2) The rise of ISIL
In Syria, opposition parties that do not join the Syria National Coalition, ISIL and al-Nusrah Front which is designated as a terrorist organization due to its relations with Al-Qaeda, gained strength by making use of the politically unstable situation. In this context, in April 2013, ISIL announced unilaterally that it would absorb and merge with al-Nusrah Front. Following protests from al-Nusrah Front, the Al-Qaeda core conducted mediation. However, ISIL did not comply with the mediation, and its relations with the Al-Qaeda core have deteriorated13.
13 On February 2, 2014, Al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al Zawahiri released a statement on the Internet declaring that Al-Qaeda severed ties with ISIL: “ISIL is not a branch of the Al-Qaeda group...does not have an organizational relationship with it and (Al-Qaeda) is not the group responsible for their actions.”
14 The term means “successor” in Arabic. After Prophet Muhammad died, the term has been used to refer to those who led the Islamic community. Since then, a number of the heads of hereditary dynasties, including the Umayyad and Abbasid dynasties, utilized this title.
15 According to a U.N. report, ISIL’s estimated revenue from crude oil ranges from US$846,000 to US$1,645,000 per day (approx. 100 to 200 million yen). The report notes that ISIL’s revenue sources also include unilaterally-imposed levies, including ransom from kidnapping and taxation (U.N. Security Council Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee report [November 14, 2014]). Amid speculations that revenue from crude oil is becoming no longer a major source of ISIL’s funding due to the Coalition’s airstrikes and fluctuations in crude oil prices, some have indicated that ISIL has diversified its revenue sources by increasing the taxes levied on residents and companies in the areas under ISIL’s control. Some also suggest that ISIL earns profits from asset management made through its overseas supporters.

Meanwhile, following the withdrawal of U.S. Forces in December 2011, the security situation in Iraq deteriorated rapidly against the backdrop of political feuds and religious confrontations. In January 2014, ISIL, which had increasingly gained strength from its stronghold in Syria, seized the unstable situation in Iraq to begin invading areas in western Iraq, and occupied Fallujah, a city west of the capital city of Baghdad. In June 2014, ISIL took control of the second largest city, Mosul, in northern Iraq. Following this, ISIL’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a self-proclaimed “caliph”14, unilaterally declared the establishment of the “Islamic State” and has called on Islam followers throughout the world to pledge their allegiance to him.

(3) The characteristics of ISIL
ISIL, unlike traditional terrorist organizations, is said to be characterized by its substantial funding, powerful and accomplished military forces, and established organizational structure15. In addition, it is deemed that ISIL’s membership includes Ba’ath Party members from the former Iraqi regime as well as former Iraqi military officers, along with numerous foreign fighters. Having an adept public
relations strategy16, about 25,000 people including 3,400 people from the West are said to be participating in ISIL’s activities17. Since launching the invasion of Iraq, ISIL has: utilized equipment seized from the Iraqi Security Forces and other forces; has successively taken control of key cities, oil field areas, and military facilities in Iraq and Syria; and thereby, expanded its area of control.
16 ISIL uses the Internet and social media to recruit young people as fighters. According to a U.N. report in May 2015, the international community is called on to cooperate in efforts to address the issue of women joining terrorist organizations. See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 1, Paragraph 3, “The Spread of International Terrorism.”
17 Munich Security Report 2015 (January 2015)
18 See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 1, Paragraph 3, “The Spread of International Terrorism.”
19 The United States has simultaneously announced airstrikes for humanitarian purposes, namely, to release the minority Yazidi sect who have been subject to ISIL’s persecution. According to the Combined Joint Task Force, as of May 26, 2015, Coalition forces as a whole have executed over 4,100 airstrikes.
20 In addition to the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Jordan participate in the airstrikes against ISIL in Iraq.
21 In 2014, the United States provided over 1,500 Hellfire missiles to the Iraqi government. In 2015, the United States provided 250 MRAP (including the distribution to the Kurdish Autonomous Region) and several tens of thousands of small arms and ammunition, among other assets. In May 2015, the United States decided to provide 2,000 anti-tank rockets.
22 Thus far, the Iraqi forces, Peshmerga, and other forces have recaptured the following strategic areas from ISIL. In Iraq, the Mosul dam was recaptured in August 2014, the city Baiji in central Iraq in November 2014, Diyala province in central Iraq in January 2015, and Tikrit in May 2015. In Syria, Ayn al-Arab was recaptured in January 2015. In addition, the forces have recaptured 13,000-17,000 km2 of the 55,000 km2 area held by ISIL in Iraq (April 2015 U.S. Central

ISIL gives priority to maintaining the areas under its control. At the same time, ISIL encourages terrorist attacks against the West and elsewhere. The risk of terrorist attacks by ISIL fighters who have returned to their countries from conflict areas, such as Iraq and Syria, is a cause for concern among the states18.

(4) The international response to ISIL
In August 2014, ISIL launched an offensive against the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, and made advances towards Erbil where the U.S. Consulate and other facilities are located. Based on this situation, the United States and other countries19 began airstrikes on ISIL in order to protect U.S. citizens in Iraq, among other purposes20. In an address on the U.S. strategy for ISIL delivered in September 2014, President Obama stated that the military action would be extended to include Syria to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL. President Obama announced that the United States would not only lead a broad coalition to conduct airstrikes, but also provide military supports to the Iraqi Security Forces fighting a ground war and to the moderate opposition party in Syria.

The Coalition’s military action in Iraq includes offering education, training, and providing equipment21, as well as extending military supports, such as operation assessments and advice, to the forces fighting the ground war, including the Iraqi Security Forces and the Kurdistan regional government’s military organization known as Peshmerga. At the same time, in coordination with its own airstrikes and relevant forces, the Coalition works to thwart the advancement of ISIL and recapture some of the strategic areas22. However, the Iraqi Security Forces face problems, such as
Command announcement).
23 In May 2015, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter responded in an interview with CNN that “the Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight,” whereas U.S. Vice President Joe Biden stated that the Iraqi forces have made “enormous sacrifice and (shown) bravery.”
24 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, “Worldwide Threat Assessment 2015” (January 2015)
25 In the military action against ISIL, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Jordan conduct airstrikes in Syria, and Qatar provides supports to these countries.
26 In the airstrikes in Syria, airstrikes were also conducted against the Khorasan group which was considered to threaten U.S. interests along with ISIL.
27 In response to ISIL’s attacks, Peshmerga, the military organization of the Kurdistan regional government, arrived in Ayn al-Arab via Turkey. In addition, forces opposed to the Syrian regime, such as the Free Syrian Army, reportedly participated in the operation against ISIL in Ayn al-Arab.
28 For example, in January 2015, ISIL announced that armed groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan swore allegiance to ISIL and that it would name this region ISIL Khorasan Province.
29 In Egypt, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis operates actively in the Sinai Peninsula. See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 1-6 “Situation in Egypt.”
30 The Tripoli branch of ISIL is said to be operating in Libya’s capital city of Tripoli. See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 1-4 “Situation in Libya.”
weak command functions and low morale23, as well as shortage of personnel. Without foreign support, it is said that the Iraqi Security Forces can neither defend against external threats, nor sustain military action domestically24. In contrast, the Peshmerga has experience with the Iraq War. The Peshmerga is considered to have relatively advanced training and a functioning chain of command, and plays a critical role in the military action against ISIL. In April 2015, with the support of Shiite militias and others, the Iraqi Security Forces succeeded in recapturing Tikrit, a key area that continues onto Mosul. However, following the recapture, backlash from local Sunnis has increased following the forage and plundering by Shiite militias, signaling sectarian struggle. Furthermore, ever since ISIL seized control of Ramadi in western Iraq in May 2015, the United States has been forced to review its strategy of prioritizing the recapture of Mosul. In this regard, the Coalition and Iraqi forces conduct seesaw offense and defense.

As regards the military action in Syria, in September 2014, the U.S. Forces and the Middle Eastern Coalition members25 conducted airstrikes on ISIL in Syria26. In addition, starting on the same month, an intense battle was raged between Kurdish forces and ISIL over Ayn al-Arab (Kurdish name: Kobani), a city in northern Syria close to the border with southern Turkey27. As a result of the Coalition’s airstrikes and the Kurdish forces’ ground war, Kurdish groups eliminated ISIL groups from Ayn al-Arab in January 2015. However, in 2015, ISIL has closed in on the nerve center of the Assad administration, occupying a part of a Palestinian refugee camp in the capital city, Damascus. In May 2015, ISIL took control of Palmyra in central Syria. ISIL thus continues to gain strength in Syria. Moderate opposition parties such as the Free Syrian Army that are expected to engage in the ground war in Syria have just started taking the Coalition’s training, and more time is deemed necessary to make full-scale advances to recapture the strategic areas.

ISIL has also been gaining strength in countries other than Iraq and Syria28. Among these countries, in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt29, and Libya30, ISIL is deemed to be working to establish bases mostly
in areas where there is insufficient national governance, coordinating with local terrorist organizations31.
31 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, “Worldwide Threat Assessment 2015” (January 2015)
32 U.S. Secretary of State Kerry underscored the achievements of the airstrikes, saying, “We are taking out Daesh’s fighters in the thousands thus far – single digits, but thousands. Their commanders – 50% of the top command has been eliminated. Hundreds of vehicles and tanks, which they captured, have been destroyed. Nearly 200 oil and gas facilities that they were using have been eliminated...as well as more than a thousand fighting positions, checkpoints, building, barracks” (January 22, 2015, Press conference by U.S. State Secretary Kerry). U.S. Secretary of Defense Carter stated that the United States cannot commit to completing the military action against ISIL in three years (March 11, 2015, U.S. Defense Secretary Carter’s testimony to the Senate).
33 Based on sources including the “Report on Progress Towards Security and Stability in Afghanistan” (November 2013) by the U.S. Department of Defense. As for the relationship between Pakistan and the United States with regard to the situation in Afghanistan, see Part I, Chapter 1, Section 7-2.

The announced outcomes of the Coalition’s military action against ISIL led by the United States include the fragmentation of ISIL’s command and control functions, decline of morale of the organization’s members, decrease in crude oil revenues, and the deaths of many fighters including commanders. In this regard, the military action is deemed to have prevented ISIL’s further advances and made strides in recapturing some of the strategic areas. However, the Iraqi Security Forces and the moderate opposition parties that are fighting the ground war have inadequate capacity, both in quality and quantity, and require long-term training. Without the mobilization of large-scale ground war assets by the United States and other countries, analysts note that the operation could become protracted. In the United States, there are estimates that at least three years will be needed to ultimately eliminate ISIL from Iraq and Syria. The future outlook related to ISIL hence remains uncertain32.

2 Situation in Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, following the so-called 9.11 terrorist attacks in the United States, Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) that the U.S. Forces launched in November 2001 has been engaged in the mop-up operation of the Taliban and other groups. Furthermore, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have conducted security duties. Nevertheless, the security situation in many parts of Afghanistan continues to warrant close attention. In November 2014, a suicide bombing in the capital city of Kabul caused damage to a U.K. embassy vehicle, killing or injuring three people. The security situation in the eastern, southern, and southwestern areas of Afghanistan which border Pakistan also remains a cause for concern.

Although the Taliban’s attack capability is diminishing because of the activities of the ISAF and ANDSF, the group is presumed to have maintained capabilities for intermittent attacks on city areas, while securing safe havens in northwest Pakistan and other areas, and conduct terrorism activities in Afghanistan astride the borders33.

In September 2014, the Ghani administration was inaugurated based on the results of the presidential elections in Afghanistan in April and June 2014. Subsequently, the agreements that the previous Karzai administration had continued to postpone were signed, namely, the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between the United States and Afghanistan, which sets forth the legal framework of the stationing of the U.S. Forces in 2015 and beyond34, as well as the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) for the support mission in Afghanistan led by NATO forces in 2015 and beyond. In November, the agreements were approved at both the upper and lower houses of Afghanistan’s parliament.
34 The BSA sets forth provisions on the activities of the U.S. Forces in Afghanistan and their rights to use facilities in 2015 and beyond.
35 See Chapter 1, Section 8 for NATO’s tasks for RSM.
36 In addition to Kabul, the RSM carries out activities in Mazar-e Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, and Laghman.
37 The Afghan-U.S. Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement mentions the possibility of U.S. troops staying in Afghanistan beyond 2014.

In December 2014, ISAF’s combat mission had been completed. In January 2015, the Resolute Support Mission (RSM)35 was launched, which primarily provides education, training, and advice under the leadership of NATO. Approximately 13,000 personnel participate in the mission. The RSM, based in Kabul, carries out activities in five locations in Afghanistan36. Additionally, the U.S. Forces, while providing training to Afghan forces as a member of NATO, implements Operation Freedom Sentinel (OFS). In May 2014, U.S. President Obama announced that the U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan would be reduced to about 9,800 personnel by early 2015, and that all troops would ultimately be withdrawn except the security assistance component of the U.S. embassy by the end of 2016. However, in December 2014, then-Secretary of Defense Hagel revised the initial plan, stating that an additional 1,000 personnel or 10,800 personnel of the U.S. Forces would be deployed in Afghanistan from the start of 2015, due to delays in the deployment of troops by NATO member states. Secretary Hagel announced that there was no change to the future withdrawal plan. In March 2015, President Ghani visited the United States. The Joint Statement of President Ghani and President Obama presented that based on Afghanistan’s request, the United States would maintain its posture of 9,800 troops through the end of 2015, retracting the initial plan to halve the U.S. troop strength in the end of 2015.

With regard to the international community’s support for Afghanistan, at the NATO Chicago Summit held in May 2012, commitment to Afghan security beyond the end of 2014 was reaffirmed. In addition, at the Tokyo Conference on Afghanistan in July 2012, the international community, including Japan, announced the provision of over US$16 billion in financial aid. Moreover, countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and France concluded a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghanistan37, which called for continued support beyond 2014.


The responsibilities for security in Afghanistan have been transferred sequentially from ISAF to ANDSF since 2011. Since January 2015, ANDSF has assumed full responsibility for security in Afghanistan. Despite the challenges raised with regard to the capabilities of ANDSF, it is assessed to have some capacity to maintain security in terms of establishing operational plans and suppressing armed groups, as evidenced from the absence of large-scale terrorist attacks and other events during the presidential election in June 2014. In August 2014, the Ministry of Defense established a new national military strategy. The strategy defined such priority goals as the organizational strengthening of the Defense Ministry and the national forces, and the increased professionalism of the forces. In addition, to improve the literacy rate, which has posed as a challenge, efforts are under way including the implementation of various curriculums.

Afghanistan faces not only security problems but also a plethora of challenges related to reconstruction, including preventing corruption, enhancing the rule of law, strengthening the crackdown on narcotics trafficking, and promoting regional development. Ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan is a common challenge of the international community, which requires continuing engagement with the country.

3 Situation of the Middle East Peace Efforts
In the Middle East, there have been wars between Israel and Arab countries four times since the foundation of Israel in 1948. Between Israel and Palestine, the Oslo Agreement concluded in 1993 marked the beginning of a peace process through comprehensive negotiations. In 2003, the Israelis and the Palestinians agreed on a “Roadmap” that laid out a course leading to the establishment of a Middle East peace initiative based on the principle of the peaceful coexistence between the two nations. However, the Roadmap has yet to be implemented. Subsequently, large-scale fighting occurred twice through 201238. In both cases, a ceasefire agreement was reached through the mediation of Egypt and other parties.
38 Following rocket attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip, Israeli forces launched a large-scale military action from the end of 2008 to early 2009 that included airstrikes on the Gaza Strip and the mobilization of ground forces. In November 2012, Israeli forces again conducted airstrikes on the Gaza Strip.
39 In these peace talks, Hamas, the dominant faction, conducted negotiations with Israel.
40 Hamas does not recognize Israel.

In July 2013, Middle East peace talks between Israel and Palestine resumed for the first time in nearly three years at the strong urging of the United States. Nevertheless, the peace talks had to be discontinued in March to April 2014 owing to various developments, including Israel’s suspension of the release of Palestinian prisoners, Palestine’s international treaty accession applications, and the agreement reached between the PLO dominated by the Fatah39 and the Islamic fundamentalist organization Hamas that has effective rule over Palestine and the Gaza Strip40 to form a national unity cabinet. In this context, in June to July 2014, murders of Israeli and Palestinian boys took place,
heightening the tension on both sides. In July 2014, rockets were fired at Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip intermittently. In response to the outbreak of clashes on both sides, in August 2014, Israeli forces launched a ground operation. These clashes are thought to have killed at least 2,133 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip41. In the same month, the two sides accepted Egypt’s request and agreed to a ceasefire42.
41 According to the U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report (August 2014).
42 The main components of the ceasefire agreement are: (1) Opening of the crossings between the Gaza Strip and Israel; (2) Speedy entry of humanitarian assistance supplies, relief supplies, and supplies necessary for reconstruction; (3) Fishing permissions from six nautical miles; and (4) Indirect negotiations between the two parties over other topics (e.g., construction of an airport and seaport in the Gaza Strip, disarmament of Hamas) in one month’s time after ceasefire is ensured. However, the consultations in (4) have remained at a standstill.
43 In Sweden, the United Kingdom, France, and Spain, actions were taken, such as the adoption of resolutions seeking the recognition of a Palestinian state.
44 The International Criminal Court is the first permanent international criminal judicial body in history to prosecute and punish, based on international law, individuals who committed the most serious crimes of concern to the whole international community (genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and crimes of aggression).
45 In the preliminary examination, the ICC collects evidence on war crimes, conducts hearings with relevant stakeholders of both parties, among other activities. No deadlines for the preliminary examination are provided in the ICC Rome Statute.
46 Military observers of the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) are also active in this region.
47 U.N. Security Council Resolution 1970 (adopted on February 26, 2011)
48 U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 (adopted on March 17, 2011)

Meanwhile, in Europe, national parliaments have begun to call for the recognition of a Palestinian state since October 201443. Furthermore, in January 2015, the International Criminal Court (ICC)44 released a statement saying that upon the acceptance of Palestine’s application to accede to the ICC in the same month, it opened a preliminary examination into whether or not Palestine conducted war crimes45. Israel has protested such moves by the international community.

Israel has yet to sign peace treaties with Syria and Lebanon. Israel and Syria disagree on the return of the Golan Heights which Israel has occupied since the 1967 Arab-Israel War. The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) has been deployed in the Golan Heights region to observe the implementation of the ceasefire and military disengagement between the two parties46. Concerning Israel and Lebanon, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) increased its presence following the 2006 clash between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim organization.

4 Situation in Libya
The anti-government demonstrations that erupted in February 2011 spread nationwide, leading the Gaddafi regime to crush the demonstrations by force. That same month, the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution on sanctions against Libya that included a total arms embargo47, and in March 2011, a resolution allowing for an array of measures to establish a no-fly zone and to protect civilians48. Following the resolutions, a multinational force led by the United States, United Kingdom, and France commenced military action. In October 2011, the National Transitional
Council consisting of anti-Gaddafi forces announced the death of Colonel Gaddafi and declared the liberation of all of Libya. In July 2012, elections for a General National Congress were held. However, progress has not been made in the rehabilitation of the military and public security49. Militia and tribal leaders exert strong influence50, and while receiving their support, secular and Islamic groups struggle for power. In March 2014, a no-confidence motion was passed against Prime Minister Zeidan. In June 2014, elections for the Council of Representatives were held. Nonetheless, confrontation between Islamic and secular groups intensified. Consequently, Libya has become fragmented with two assemblies existing in parallel – the Islamic groups’ General National Congress based in the capital city of Tripoli and the secular groups’ Council of Representatives based in Tobruk in eastern Libya which has the support of the United States and other countries.
49 According to The Military Balance 2011 and 2014, the troop strength has decreased from 76,000 before the Arab Spring to 7,000 as of 2014.
50 In the eastern coastal area, a militia organization seeking to expand autonomous rule occupied oil-related facilities for nearly a year (nine months).
51 In October 2013, NATO Secretary General Rasmussen announced the dispatch of a military advisory team to Libya. In November 2013, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would provide training for 5,000-8,000 Libyan personnel in Bulgaria.
52 The ISIL branch in Tripoli issued a statement claiming responsibility for this incident.

Under these politically unstable circumstances, Islamic extremist groups are said to be gaining strength in Libya. In September 2012, an Islamic extremist group attacked the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, killing four Americans, including the Ambassador. In January 2014, the U.S. Department of State designated Ansar al-Sharia, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda that is deemed to have been involved in this incident, as a terrorist organization. The United States and NATO have announced their intentions to provide military training to increase the security maintenance capabilities of the Libyan government as well as to dispatch a military advisory team51. In December 2014, the U.S. Africa Command noted that an ISIL training camp exists in eastern Libya and revealed that the U.S. Forces were monitoring the camp. In January 2015, an armed group thought to be affiliated with ISIL52 attacked an upscale hotel in the capital city of Tripoli, killing at least 13 people. In February 2015, an extremist organization that has sworn allegiance to ISIL posted a video on the Internet of what is believed to be the murder of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians. As a retaliatory measure, the Egyptian government conducted airstrikes together with the Libyan government. Amid this situation, many refugees from North Africa including Libya have landed in Europe on smugglers’ boats. Some have suggested that ISIL fighters have slipped in among these refugees. European countries are thus faced with numerous issues, including the issue of accepting many refugees, preventing the entry of ISIL fighters, cracking down on migrant smuggling boats, and providing relief to passengers on migrant smuggling boats that have capsized in the Mediterranean Sea.

5 Situation in Yemen
Starting in February 2011, anti-government demonstrations calling for the resignation of the
long-time ruler President Ali Abdullah Saleh gained traction in Yemen. In April 2011, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)53 brokered the GCC Initiative54. President Saleh signed the Initiative in November 2011 in the face of increasing pressure from the international community, including the United Nations. Vice President Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi was elected President following a presidential election in February 2012, and the transition of power was conducted peacefully.
53 The GCC was established in 1981 by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait. Headquartered in Saudi Arabia’s capital city of Riyadh, the GCC aims to effect coordination, integration, and cooperation between the member states in all fields, including defense and economy.
54 The Initiative included clauses which provided that immunity would be granted to the President in exchange for the expeditious transfer of power to the Vice President.
55 The Houthis are followers of the Zaydi branch of Shiite Islam and are based in Saada governorate in northern Yemen. In 2004, the Houthis staged an armed uprising as an anti-government group, and an armed conflict broke out with the Yemeni military.
56 In 2007, the Southern Movement was formed to assert secession from the north. After President Saleh resigned as a consequence of the Arab Spring, the Movement has taken an anti-government stance, staging demonstrations and clashes with public security authorities.
57 At least ten countries including Japan have temporarily closed their embassies and evacuated their embassy personnel (further closures are possible).

President Hadi implemented the national dialogue process. Nevertheless, from August 2014, demonstrations led by the opposition insurgent group the Houthis55 occurred in the capital city of Sana’a56. The Houthis, based in northern Yemen, have long and repeatedly clashed with the government over rising fuel prices. Initially, the demonstrations remained peaceful. However, in September 2014, clashes broke out between the Houthi militia and Yemeni public security forces, and this led to the Houthis’ occupation of key government buildings in the city. Following the armed conflict that occurred in January 2015, President Hadi and others submitted their letters of resignation, and the situation intensified further. In February 2015, the Houthis forced the dissolution of the parliament and announced the establishment of a transitional national council and a presidential council. Based on the circumstances, countries, especially Western nations, began to close their embassies, citing the deterioration of the security situation as the reason57. Later, President Hadi withdrew his resignation and based his government in Aden in southern Yemen. Meanwhile, the Houthis advanced into the Red Sea’s coastal areas and key cities between the capital city of Sana’a and Aden. The Houthis seized a military base in Taiz and invaded Aden city. In response to this situation, President Hadi’s faction requested the support of Arab countries. Then, in March 2015, a Saudi Arabian-led coalition launched airstrikes against the Houthis – the so-called “Operation Decisive Storm.” Saudi Arabia claims that this operation conducted airstrikes against the bases of the Houthis and the Yemeni military that support the Houthis, as well as destroyed ballistic missiles and other assets. Nonetheless, there were casualties including civilian casualties in Yemen and near the Saudi Arabian border, allegedly attributed to their involvement in the exchange of rocket fire and airstrikes, prompting the international community to express strong concerns to both parties. In April 2015, “Operation Renewal of Hope” was launched with the aim of setting the conflict through political dialogue. In addition, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2216, which set forth
provisions on the Houthis’ withdrawal from the government institutions they occupied and return of the weapons of the Yemeni military, as well as an arms embargo and asset freezes, in an effort to bring the situation to a close. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia and other countries, which have been attacked by the Houthis, have continued to conduct airstrikes against the Houthis. Although a five-day ceasefire was implemented for humanitarian assistance purposes in May 2015, airstrikes have continued following the end of the ceasefire. In that same month, peace talks were scheduled to be held with the participation of all parties but were postponed, citing lack of preparation as the reason.

At the same time, Yemen is also the base of operations of international terrorist organizations. In October 2010, explosives were discovered in multiple air cargoes that were headed for the United States. It was revealed that these cargoes had been shipped from Yemen. These incidents are deemed to have been perpetrated mainly by Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) based in southern Yemen. AQAP is considered to have been involved also in the terrorism incidents in January 2015, including the assault on the head office of a French weekly newspaper over the caricature of Prophet Muhammad. In February 2015, Islamic extremists reportedly overran a Yemeni military base, amid the unstable political situation caused by the Houthis’ seizure of power. While the United States has launched a mop-up operation using drones against these international terrorist organizations that are operating in Yemen, it is feared that AQAP and other organizations would further gain in strength due to the declining presence of the United States in Yemen58.
58 The United States has temporarily closed its embassy in Yemen based on the unstable public security situation in Sana’a. In addition, the United States has withdrawn its personnel from Al Anad Air Base.
59 See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 1-1, Footnote 2
60 A Sunni political organization established in Egypt in 1928 as an organization targeting the general public to “revive Islam.” In the 1950s, it became a target of a clampdown for plotting the assassination of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. However, by the 1970s, the organization became moderate to the extent of conducting political activities through parliament. Meanwhile, extremist organizations were derived, with Muslim Brotherhood serving as the parent organization.

6 Situation in Egypt
In January 2011, democratization movements triggered by “the Arab Spring”59 spread to Egypt, where large-scale anti-government demonstrations occurred and President Mubarak, who had controlled the country as a despotic leader for 30 years, resigned. Mr. Mursi from the Muslim Brotherhood60, was elected as the new president through the presidential election in June 2012, but large-scale demonstrations demanding resignation of President Mursi occurred in June 2013 due to an economic impasse and the chasm between Islamic groups and liberal, secular groups, which resulted in a large number of victims from clashes between some demonstrators and groups supporting the President. While this sort of disorder spread in the country, the national forces intervened in July 2013 and dismissed President Mursi, establishing a provisional government by temporarily setting the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court as President. In May 2014, a presidential
election was held in line with the roadmap drafted by the provisional government, which addresses the comprehensive democratization process for national reconciliation, and former Defense Minister Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi was elected.

As the democratically-elected Egyptian administration collapsed through the intervention of national forces, the United States prompted the provisional government to proceed further with democratization initiatives by freezing some military assistance to Egypt in October 2013.

Meanwhile, in the Sinai Peninsula, terrorist attacks by Islamic extremist groups have been a cause for concern. Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis61, which is said to have pledged allegiance to ISIL, has staged attacks against the Egyptian government, leading the Egyptian military forces to carry out operations to gain control of the area.
61 An Islamic extremist organization based in the Sinai Peninsula that aims to overthrow Israel. It is deemed that the organization intensified its terrorism activities targeting Egyptian security authorities following the collapse of the Morsi government in July 2013.
62 The initial mandate period was one year with up to 7,000 military personnel and up to 900 police personnel. Specifically, the mandate of UNMISS is as follows: (1) support for peace consolidation and thereby fostering long-term state building and economic development; (2) support the government of the Republic of South Sudan in exercising its responsibilities for conflict prevention, mitigation, and resolution and protect civilians; and (3) support the government of the Republic of South Sudan in developing its capacity to provide security, to establish rule of law, and to strengthen the security and justice sectors.
63 The Abyei area was one of the bloodiest battlefields during the North-South civil war. Both the North and the South claim sovereignty over the area due to its abundant oil resources. Whether the area belongs to the North or the South remains uncertain, as a referendum that will settle the territorial issue has not yet been held. In May 2011, immediately before the independence of South Sudan, a battle began between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), which was a major military organization in southern Sudan. In June 2011, the Security Council established under its Resolution 1990 the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) in the region.
64 A vast majority of oil wells are located in South Sudan, while most pipelines and ports for export are located in Sudan.

7 Situation in Sudan and South Sudan
The North-South civil war that continued since 1983 between the government of Sudan, composed of Arab Muslims in the north, and the anti-government group, composed of African Christians in the south, concluded with the establishment of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005 under the mediation of neighboring countries, the United States, and others. As a result of a referendum in accordance with the rules of the CPA in January 2011, the Republic of South Sudan gained independence on July 9, 2011. On the same day, the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) was established based on Resolution 1996 adopted by the U.N. Security Council in order to support the establishment of an environment contributing to maintaining peace and stability and helping South Sudan to develop further62. After the independence of this state, negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan have been going on regarding issues, which include the definition of the national border (e.g. the treatment of the Abyei area63) and the profit allocation of oil production64, assisted by the mediation of the international community including the AU. The two countries signed a series of agreements regarding security measures in the border area, oil
production, and other issues in September 2012 as well as a document specifying an agreement implementation schedule in March 2013.

The President of South Sudan dismissed the Vice President in July 2013, bringing to the surface a political conflict between the two groups. In December of the same year, fighting broke out among the President’s security forces in the capital city of Juba, which evolved into clashes between the pro-President faction (government) and pro-Vice President faction (anti-government group). Subsequently, following an outbreak of clashes between the South Sudanese government and the anti-government group, fighting and violent acts targeting specific ethnic groups spread to different areas, resulting in a large number of casualties, refugees, and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Under these circumstances, on December 24, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2132 and decided to enhance the UNMISS by increasing the maximum military personnel by 5,500. In addition, the “Intergovernmental Authority on Development” (IGAD)65 assisted by the U.N. and the AU initiated efforts to start dialogues among South Sudanese leaders and enable reconciliation. The IGAD helped both parties to sign an agreement in Ethiopia in January 2014 on ceasing hostile activities in South Sudan. Even now, the IGAD continues to conduct mediation to establish a unified transitional government66. Furthermore, in May 2014, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2155, which stipulated that the mandate of the UNMISS would be restricted to the four areas of the protection of civilians, monitoring and investigating human rights, creating the conditions for delivery of humanitarian assistance, and supporting the implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. In May 2015, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2223 that extended the mandate of the UNMISS by six months.
65 The IGAD was established in 1996. Its members are East African nations including Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
66 In February 2015, under the mediation of the IGAD, the two parties agreed on a roadmap for the establishment of a unified transitional government and a comprehensive peace agreement.
67 “Somaliland” located in the Northwest declared its independence in 1991. “Puntland” located in the Northeast declared the establishment of an autonomous government in 1998.

Since around 2003, the Darfur region in the west of Sudan has experienced heightened conflicts between the Arab Sudanese government and African anti-government groups. In response to the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) entered between the government and some anti-government groups in 2006, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1769 in order to establish the African Union/United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) in 2007. In 2011, the government and an anti-government group, “Liberation and Justice Movement” (LJM), signed the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). However, other anti-government groups rejecting the implementation of this document still continue to fight against the government forces.

8 Situation in Somalia
Somalia has been in a state of anarchy since its government collapsed in 199167. In 2005, the
“Transitional Federal Government” (TFG) was established based on the mediation of neighboring countries, but fighting was escalated with such groups as the “Union of Islamic Courts” (UIC) denying this framework. In 2006, Ethiopian forces intervened with assistance from the United States and drove away the UIC. In 2007, the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM)68 was established based on the approval of United Nations. On the other hand, Al-Qaeda-related extremist insurgents derived from the UIC, “Al-Shabaab”69, gained strength in the central and southern parts of the country and resisted the TFG. In response to this, neighboring countries dispatched troops to the AMISOM and other organizations and seized Kismayo, a major stronghold of Al-Shabaab, in October 2012. In August 2014, AMISOM launched Operation Indian Ocean and succeeded in recapturing some of the cities in the central and southern areas which had served as the bases of Al-Shabaab. In the following month, Al-Shabaab ‘s leader Godane was killed by the attacks of the U.S. Forces. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab frequently stages terrorist attacks against AMISOM’s member states. In particular, cross-border terrorist attacks against Kenya have increased since 2014.
68 The AMISOM is composed mainly of troops from Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya, and Sierra Leone, joined by Ethiopia in January 2013. Resolution 2124 decided to increase the number of troops from 17,731 to 22,126.
69 See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 3-2
70 See Part III, Chapter 3, Section 2 for counter-piracy initiatives implemented by the MOD and the SDF and other countries.
71 The Tuareg Tribe is a nomadic ethnic minority in the Sahara Desert. It is pointed out that the tribe has been in conflict with the government of Mali seeking for autonomy in northern Mali.
72 See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 3-2

In addition, Somalia, especially the northeastern part of the country, is considered to include bases for pirates who are active off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden. The international community is implementing a series of initiatives to enhance the security capabilities of Somalia based on the perception that instability of Somalia triggers the piracy issues70.

Somalia saw the end of transitional governance period of the TFG as of August 2012 and convened a new federal assembly. A new president was elected in September 2012 and a new cabinet was formed in November 2012. This newly-integrated government established for the first time in 21 years aims to stabilize the situation in the country.

9 Situation in Mali
In Mali, an anti-government Tuareg71 insurgent group, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), triggered a riot in January 2012, joined by other groups including “Ansar Dine”72, an Islamic extremist group. The MNLA conquered northern cities and declared the independence of the northern region in April 2012. Subsequently, Islamic extremist groups including Ansar Dine that expelled the MNLA, “Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa” (MUJAO), and “Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb” (AQIM), governed the country based on the sharia law, aggravating the humanitarian and security situations in northern Mali.
In response to this situation, in December 2012, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2085 and approved the deployment of the African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA)73, whose tasks included revitalizing the capabilities of Malian troops and security organizations and helping Malian authorities. In January 2013, France dispatched its troops to the country based on a request from the Malian provisional government following the invasion of central and southern regions by terrorists including Ansar Dine. Subsequently, the Malian provisional government recaptured its major cities in the northern part of the country, assisted by the deployment of AFISMA. In April 2013, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2100 to determine the establishment of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)74, whose tasks include the stabilization of densely-populated areas and the reconstruction of national capabilities throughout Mali. Based on this resolution, MINUSMA, which had its authority delegated by AFISMA, became operational in July 2013. With the support of MINUSMA, a presidential election was held in a peaceful manner, and a new government was established in September of the same year75.
73 AFISMA receives troops from member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), including Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria.
74 The initial mandate period of MINUSMA is one year from July 2013. The mission is implemented by a maximum of 11,200 military personnel and a maximum of 1,440 policing personnel. In case  MINUSMA is exposed to imminent danger, based on a request from the U.N. Secretary-General, French forces are given authorization to intervene for the purpose of assisting the mission.
75 In June 2013, the provisional government and MNLA reached an agreement on such issues as allowing the northern area to participate in the presidential election and approving the dispatch of Mali troops to northern cities.
76 The Sahel region refers to the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. The countries in the Sahel region include Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.
77 Operation Barkhane consists of a total of around 3,000 personnel. The Operation’s headquarters are in Chad, and it has bases in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The operation is executed through the swift deployment of units to various areas. In northern Mali, French troops collaborate with MINUSMA units, and in other areas, collaborate with the military forces of the countries in the region. The Operation mainly conducts mop-ups of terrorists and joint patrol.

Later, large-scale clashes broke out between Malian troops and MNLA in May 2014. However, in the same month, a ceasefire agreement was established between the two parties with the mediation of the AU. In July 2014, with the mediation of the U.N., Algeria and other parties, peace talks commenced between the Malian government and the Tuareg insurgent group, including MNLA. Their talks over the autonomy of the northern area are ongoing. Nonetheless, with the Malian government losing most of its governance over the northern area of Mali, AQIM and other groups have conducted intermittent attacks against MINUSMA units and the situation in the region has destabilized.

In August 2014, French troops integrated and reorganized its units in Mali, Chad, and Niger in order to deal effectively with the expanding threat of terrorism across the whole Sahel region, including Mali76, and launched Operation Barkhane covering the entire region. French troops are currently working with MINUSMA and the troops of the countries in the region to stabilize the Sahel region, including northern Mali77.
10 Situation in the Central African Republic
The Central African Republic has been facing political turmoil since its independence in 1960, afflicted by successive military coups and activities by anti-government insurgents. In December 2012, Seleka78, an anti-government Islamic insurgent group, conquered several cities in the northeastern part of the country, based on their dissatisfaction over the execution status of an agreement signed in 2008 with the government. In January 2013, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)79 and other organizations helped the Central African Republic government and Seleka to reach a peace agreement. However, Seleka recommenced their attacks in March 2013 based on its assertion that the government failed in conforming to the agreement, and conquered the capital city of Bangui. Subsequently, the country’s security and humanitarian situations were rapidly aggravated, as murders and looting of citizens by multiple insurgent groups, including Seleka and “Anti-balaka,” a mostly Christian vigilante group established to counter Seleka, became widespread. In July 2014, a ceasefire agreement was concluded between Seleka and Anti-balaka. However, the interim government has limited influence, and the situation in the country remains unstable with clashes continuing between Seleka and Anti-balaka.
78 Seleka means “alliance” in the local language. The organization was created by combining two major anti-government groups and other anti-government groups in December 2012. Its stronghold is located in the northeastern part of the country where diamond mines are concentrated.
79 The ECCAS was established in December 1981. Its member states are Angola, Gabon, Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, São Tomé and Principé, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, the Central African Republic, and Burundi.
80 The initial mandate period was set to one year, with the maximum dispatch level set for 10,000 military personnel and 1,800 police personnel.
81 The forces have around 700 personnel.

Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2127 in December 2013 and approved the dispatch of the African-led International Support Mission to the Central African Republic (MISCA) led by the AU and the enhancement of French troops supporting this mission. This resolution also requested the authority of the Mission for the consolidation of peace in Central African Republic (MICOPAX), a mission implemented in the country by the leadership of the ECCAS, to be transferred to the MISCA, and suggested that the MISCA would eventually shift to a U.N. PKO. In April 2014, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2149 and decided to establish the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), whose tasks included protecting civilians80. In September 2014, MISCA was formally transitioned to MINUSCA. Moreover, the EU decided to dispatch its security forces in January 2014, and the forces commenced operations in April of the same year81. Furthermore In January 2015, the EU decided to dispatch a military advisory mission in the form of succeeding the activities of the security forces.



3. Trends in the Spread of International Terrorism

1 Characteristics of Recent International Terrorism
The objectives and capabilities of transnational terrorist organizations are deemed to vary by organization82. As a general trend, the advancement of globalization has increased terrorist organizations’ use of social media and other cyber space tools to share information and conspire within their own organizations or with other groups, as well as to acquire weapons and funds. Some of these organizations are considered to have sophisticated publicity strategies83. Furthermore, it has been suggested that terrorist organizations may be perpetrators of cyber attacks. In January 2015, a cyber attack was lodged against the U.S. Central Command’s Twitter account, and an Islamic extremist group is suspected have been involved in the incident. These terrorist organizations move into and establish bases of operations in states and regions with weak or failed governance structures.
82 U.S. Department of State, “Country Reports on Terrorism 2012” (May 2013)
83 Issue 7 of Dabiq published by ISIL in February 2015 described the murder of two Japanese nationals and reiterated its calls for terrorist attacks targeting Japanese nationals and their interests. In addition, Issue 1 of Inspire published by AQAP in July 2010 introduces easy directions for bomb-making.
84 According to the “Worldwide Threat Assessment 2015” released by U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in February 2015, more than 20,000 foreign fighters are estimated to have gone to Syria from more than 90 countries.
85 Represented as “ummah” in Arabic. Its meaning is strongly associated with a community of members with ethnic or blood ties. Ummah is believed to be formed by hijrah (emigration). The first ummah was created by the over 70 people who emigrated with Muhammad and the group of over 70 people in Medina who helped them.
86 U.S. Director of National Intelligence, “Worldwide Threat Assessment” (January 2014)

Among the various terrorist organizations, ISIL has gained strength by seizing the opportunity of the confusion in Syria and Iraq84. ISIL has an exceptionally large funding source, powerful military capability which can stand face-to-face with a nation, and de facto control of some territory, making ISIL a particularly striking presence. ISIL renounces the traditional state governance structure in the region, and prioritizes the pursuit of its unique political and religious order, including the establishment of an Islamic community85. In this regard, ISIL has traits different from terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda, which attaches importance to the “global jihad,” including attacks against U.S. and European mainland.

With regard to Al-Qaeda that is believed to have directed the 9/11 attacks in 2001, Osama Bin Laden, the group’s leader who was hiding in Pakistan, was killed in a U.S. operation in May 2011. Some analysts have noted that in light of the losses it has incurred, the Al-Qaeda core now places importance on the survival of the organization. Nonetheless, the possibility of Al-Qaeda attacks has not disappeared. While the command and control capabilities of Al-Qaeda’s leadership have been declining, Al-Qaeda’s affiliates that include “Al-Qaeda” in their name have reportedly gained strength and are perpetrating terrorism from their bases mainly in North Africa and the Middle East86.
While being based mainly in the Middle East and North Africa, organizations which are said to be af-filiated with Al-Qaeda and ISIL87 as well as other Islamic extremist groups are thought to have the capability to cross insufficiently-controlled national borders and to conduct terrorist attacks even in the areas outside of the countries where they have bases of activity. The organizations have allegedly acquired a large quantity of weapons which proliferated when the Gadhafi regime of Libya collapsed. In particular, ISIL is said to have seized a vast quantity of weapons, including advanced equipment, from troops such as the Syrian forces and the Iraqi security forces during their combat in Syria and Iraq.
87 According to the U.S. think tank Intel Center, as of May 2015, a total of 35 organizations have been confirmed: Middle East and North Africa (21 organizations); Sub-Saharan Africa (3 organization); South Asia (6 organizations); and Southeast Asia (5 organizations).
88 See Part I, Chapter 2, Section 1-2 for the situation in Iraq and Syria
89 Remarks by U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (February 7, 2014)
90 The number of people killed by each terrorist and extremist group in 2014 was the highest for ISIL (24%: 4,230 people), followed by Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations (22%: 3,949 people). These two organizations accounted for nearly half of the number of people who were killed (IntelCenter report).

Recent years have seen cases in which individuals and groups that have no particular relations with Al-Qaeda or ISIL but were inspired by their extremism become perpetrators of terrorism, giving rise to concerns about the threat of “home-grown” terrorism. European countries and the United States share concern that their nationals would conduct terrorist attacks upon experiencing combat in conflict-torn regions such as Iraq and Syria88 and returning to their countries, or upon becoming indoctrinated into extremism and returning to their countries89. In recent years, “lone-wolf” terrorism is also seen as a threat. Such acts of terrorism are planned and executed by people acting alone or in small groups. It is therefore difficult to detect their signs in advance and prevent their occurrence.

In connection with Japan, in early 2015, when there was a terrorist incident involving the murder of Japanese nationals in Syria90, ISIL declared clearly that its acts of terrorism would target Japanese nationals. In this light, Japan is not in any way immune from the threat of international terrorism.

The proliferation of the threat of terrorism has gained momentum. The diversification of its perpetrators, coupled with the growing complexity of regional conflicts, has made it further more difficult to prevent their occurrence. For this reason, international cooperation on counter-terrorism measures has become even more important. Currently, the international community as a whole is taking various steps, including military actions as well as cutting off the funding sources of terrorist organizations and preventing the international movement of terrorist fighters.




2 Trends in Global Terrorism

(1) “Home-grown” and “lone-wolf” terrorism
In recent years, home-grown and lone-wolf terrorism have become a growing concern in the West. In particular, there has been a spate of terrorism incidents perpetrated by people who are deemed to have been inspired by the adept public relations strategies of extremist groups (e.g., solicitation via social media and websites) and people who have returned to their countries from Syria and other conflict areas. Accordingly, countries are taking steps, including strengthening border control91 and exposing plans of terrorist attacks prior to their execution.
91 In September 2014, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2178 on the issue of foreign terrorist fighters. The Resolution requested member states to make exits from their countries for the purpose of executing acts of terrorism punishable under domestic laws. The Resolution also includes measures obligating member states to prevent entry or transit through their territories of any individual about whom that state had credible information which demonstrates reasonable grounds for believing that the individual is attempting to enter or transit through its territory for the purpose of participating in acts of terrorism. In addition, at the G7 Summit held in Germany in June 2015, the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to effectively implement the established international framework for the freezing of terrorists’ assets.
92 The Australian government assesses the terrorist threat to Australia on a scale of four levels – Extreme, High, Medium, and Low – and discloses the alert level for terrorism. As of March 2015, the level of alert is raised to High (terrorist attack is likely).
93 Of the two brothers who were behind the shooting attack at the Charlie Hebdo head office, one is known to have received training at an AQAP camp. In addition, AQAP released a statement saying it had issued instructions directly to the brothers. While no clear relevance has been confirmed, Amedy Coulibaly who was behind the shooting attack at a Jewish grocery store is believed to have posted a video on the Internet in which he swears allegiance to ISIL.

In the Americas, in April 2013, an explosion occurred at the venue of the Boston marathon in the United States, killing three people and injuring many. In Canada, a male convert to Islam, who is believed to have sympathized with the extremism of ISIL, shot and killed a soldier of the Canadian forces in front of the Parliament in Ottawa in October 2014. In Australia, in December 2014, a man of Iranian origin who is believed to have sympathized with the extremism of ISIL took 18 people as hostages at a café in central Sydney, resulting in the deaths of three people, including the criminal, following gunfire between him and local police officers. In September 2014, the national level of alert in Australia was elevated92.

All of these incidents are considered to be “home-grown” or “lone-wolf” terrorism.

In Europe, in May 2014, a French national who allegedly joined an Islamic extremist group in Syria opened fire at the Jewish Museum in Belgium, killing four people. In January 2015, French nationals with origins in Algeria and elsewhere who are deemed to have been inspired by Islamic extremism were involved in shooting attacks, including at the head office of the French weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo in central Paris and a Jewish grocery store93. Following this incident, the French government has remained on high alert, deploying nearly 10,000 French forces personnel nationwide. In Denmark, in February 2015, shootings occurred at an event titled “Art, blasphemy and the
freedom of expression” held at a café in Copenhagen as well as near a Jewish synagogue, killing two people.

(2) Islamic extremist terrorism
In the Middle East, Islamic extremists, such as ISIL which has gained strength in Iraq and Syria as well as the Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations, continue to stage acts of terrorism. In May 2015, multiple suicide bombings targeting Shiite mosques occurred in eastern Saudi Arabia, after which ISIL released a statement claiming responsibility for the attack.

In North Africa, it is deemed that ISIL-related organizations and the Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations operate in Libya, Egypt, and Algeria. In Tunisia, in March 2015, a group thought to be an Islamic extremist organization carried out a shooting attack at the Bardo National Museum in Tunis, killing 21 foreign tourists and others, including three Japanese nationals. In Algeria, in January 2013, an Islamic extremist group that is believed to have seceded from AQIM, which, until then had carried out kidnappings targeting Algerian nationals and Westerns, conducted shooting attacks at a natural gas plant in In Aménas in southeastern Algeria, killing many people including ten Japanese nationals. In June 2013, gunfire erupted between the Algerian forces and armed groups near the border with Mali and Libya. As these examples demonstrate, terrorism remains a threat in Algeria. In Kenya, terrorist incidents that Al-Shabaab is believed to be behind have taken place. In September 2013, an armed group conducted a shooting attack at an upscale shopping center in Nairobi, leaving 67 people dead. In April 2015, an armed group carried out a shooting attack at a university in Garissa in northeastern Kenya, leaving at least 148 people dead.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, Islamic extremists have gained strength in countries such as Mali, Somalia94, and Nigeria. In particular, in Nigeria, Boko Haram, which aims to create an Islamic state, has stepped up its activities since 2009, repeatedly carrying out acts of terrorism in retaliation against crackdowns by police and other authorities.
94 In February 2015, Al-Shabaab called on Islamic followers in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Canada to conduct attacks at shopping centers and business districts in these countries.

In April 2014, Boko Haram abducted over 200 female students in Borno State in northeastern Nigeria. In response, the international community took steps. For example the United States dispatched drones and other assets to support the search activities of the Nigerian government. In addition, the U.N. Security Council Sanctions Committee added Boko Haram to its sanctions list. Recently, Boko Haram has reportedly repeated suicide bombings using women and girls who are less likely to raise alarm. Furthermore, Boko Haram has been expanding its activities to areas outside of Nigeria, conducting a shooting attack in a village along the Nigerian border in Diffa Region in southeastern Niger in February 2015. In March 2015, Boko Haram swore allegiance to ISIL and
appears to be gaining strength. However, neighboring countries are undertaking a mop-up operation against Boko Haram, and consequently, the area under its control has not rapidly expanded.

In South Asia, acts of terrorism have occurred frequently from before. In particular, Pakistan has had a spate of terrorism attacks targeted at religious facilities and government agencies, which have been perpetrated by organizations such as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al-Qaeda. In December 2014, TTP was involved in a shooting incident at a military school in Peshawar in northwestern Pakistan, which killed over 141 people. In September 2014, Al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al Zawahiri announced the establishment of a new branch in India95. In addition, ISIL has reportedly unilaterally established Khorasan Province in Afghanistan and Pakistan96. The intensification of the acts of terrorism by Islamic extremists is a cause for concern.
95 Al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al Zawahiri has stated that the goal of the Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) is to free Muslim followers who are oppressed in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka.
96 ISIL’s spokesperson Abu Mohammed al-Adnani announced that Hafiz Saeed Khan, former TTP commander, would be appointed governor of Khorasan Province.
97 It is pointed out that the terrorist organizations have weakened in the Philippines, such as the Islamic extremist terrorist organization ASG, which have been the foremost security concern in the country. See Part I, Chapter 1, Section 5-2 for the situation in the Philippines.
98 In Indonesia, the government banned participation in ISIL in August 2014. Under the existing legal system, however, it is said that authorities do not have the authority to arrest ISIL supporters unless there is evidence of their clear involvement in terrorism activities.
99 A WHO report cites underlying factors, including damaged public health infrastructures due to civil war, as well as the entry into society of young people with no education.
100 In August 2014, the number of deaths reached 1,000 people. As of May 29, 2015, the number has exceeded 11,000

In Southeast Asia, while some progress has been observed, including with the crackdown on terrorist organizations97, the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines has allegedly sworn allegiance and provided funding to ISIL. In addition, young people from Indonesia and other countries have reportedly gone to Iraq and Syria as foreign fighters and pose a new threat in the region98.
See ▶ Fig. I-2-1-2 (Major Terrorist Groups Based in Africa and the Middle East Regions)


4. International Response to the Ebola Outbreak
Since the Ebola virus was first discovered in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, multiple outbreaks of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) have occurred mainly in Central Africa, killing tens to hundreds of people.

In March 2014, multiple cases of EVD were confirmed in Guinea for the first time in West Africa, and the infection spread to neighboring Sierra Leone and Liberia. Factors such as the weak health systems and people’s lack of knowledge about sanitation in the affected countries99, combined with their burial practices and the influx of infected people into capital cities contributed to the rising number of deaths from EVD100. In August 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the
people.
outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. The spread of infection has had adverse effects on the national economies and societies of the main affected countries – Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Furthermore, the infection spread by the movement of people through air travel and other means, with cases confirmed not only in other African countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali, but also in the United States in September 2014, Spain in October, and the United Kingdom in December. This unprecedented outbreak of EVD is a pressing issue for the international community, one in which a single country cannot deal with on its own.

Under these circumstances, in September 2014, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2177, which requested U.N. member states to provide assistance to the affected countries to contain EVD. In the same month, the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) was established and started conducting activities in the field.

The international response also included the provision of assistance by various military forces. In September 2014, President Obama announced the deployment of U.S. Forces to West Africa centered in Liberia in order to contain EVD. In December 2014, the number of deployed U.S. units reached roughly 2,900 personnel. In Liberia, the U.S. Forces are engaged mainly in the construction of treatment facilities, the establishment of facilities to train health workers, and transport. In October 2014, the United Kingdom announced its intention to deploy units primarily to Sierra Leone. In December 2014, the number of deployed U.K. units reached roughly 800 personnel. The British Armed Forces are engaged in the construction of treatment facilities, the provision of training supports for health workers, and the transport of personnel by helicopter. In addition, France, Germany, China, and other countries dispatched military personnel in order to contain Ebola. These forces are involved mainly in medical activities, the transport of medical supplies, and the education and training of local public health officials, with the purpose of providing effective supports for the local containment effort. While the WHO declared Liberia free of Ebola in May 2015, these efforts of the international community are still ongoing.