ប្រវត្តិសង្រ្គាម តំបន់ Donbas មានព្រឹត្តិការណ៍សំខាន់ៗដូចខាងក្រោម៖
- ១២០០ ជនជាតិរុស្សី មកតាំងទីលំនៅជាអចិន្រ្តយ៍ ក្នុងតំបន់ដ៍ធំលូលាយ
- ១៨០០ ជនជាតិ រុស្សី ស៊ែប ក្រិច បែលឡារុស មកតាំងទីលំនៅ បង្កើតមានជា ជនជាតិរុស្សីថ្មី
- ១៨៦៩ រដ្ឋ Donbas បានបង្កើតឡើងដោយអ្នកជំនួញ
- ១៨៩៧ ជំរឿនប្រជាជនរកឃើញថា ភាសា អ៊ុយក្រែនជា ភាសាទី ២ បន្ទាប់ពី ភាសារុស្សី
- ១៩១៨ កងទ័ពសាធារណរដ្ឋអ៊ុយក្រែន (អ៊ុយក្រែន សេរី) ចូលគ្រប់គ្រង តំបន់ Donbas ជំនួស រដ្ឋបាលសាលាខេត្ត រុស្សី ដោយមានជំនួយ កងទ័ព អាល្លឺម៉ង់ និង ហុងគ្រី អូទ្រីស
- ១៩១៧-១៩២២ កងទ័ព រុស្សី ងើបបេះបោរប្រឆាំង ធ្វើសង្រ្គាមជាមួយ កងទ័ព អ៊ុយក្រែន អាល្លឺម៉ង
- ១៩៣២ -១៩៣៣ ប្រជាជន អ៊ុយក្រែន រុស្សី និង ជនជាតិផ្សេង រងទារុណកម្ម បង្អត់អាហារ និង ដុតទាំងរស់ ដោយ ច្បាប់ប្រឆាំងរុស្សី មេដឹកនាំអាល្លឺម៉ង់ Russification policy of Joseph Stalin.
- ១៩៤២-១៩៤៣ ប្រជាជន តំបន Donbas រងការជិះជាន់ កាប់សម្លាប់ដោយ Nazi Germany's leader Adolf Hitler មនុស្ស ២៧៩,០០០ នាក់ ត្រូវបានសម្លាប់ និង មនុស្ស ៤៥,៦០០ នាក់ ត្រូវបានសម្លាប់នៅ តំបន់ Lusask
- ១៩៤៣ ថ្ងៃទី ០៩ មិនា ជាទិវាជ័យជំនៈលើកងទ័ព អ៊ុយក្រែន អាល្លឺម៉ង់
- ១៩៤៣ ប្រតិបត្តិការសឹកវាយលុក ដោយកងទ័ពក្រហម Red Army បានរំដោះតំបន់ តំបន់ Donbas មកស្ថិតក្រោមការគ្រប់គ្រងរបស់ សហភាពសូវៀត
- ១៩៥៩ ជំរៀន រកឃើញមានប្រជាជនរុស្សីតំបន់ តំបន់ Donbas ចំនួន ២, ៥ លាននាក់
- ១៩៨០ ជំរឿនរកឃើញថា ប្រជាជន តំបន់ Donbas ចំនួន ៤៥% ឆ្លើយថា ពួកគាត់ជា រុស្សី
- ១៩៩០ ចលនាជាតិនិយម ដឹកនាំដោយ ចារកម្មរុស្សី បង្កើតចលនាប្រឆាំង ឯករាជ្យ អ៊ុយក្រែន
- ១៩៩១ ប្រជាមតិ រកឃើញ ប្រជាជន ៨៥% នៅ Donesk និង ៨១% នៅ Luhansk គាំទ្រឲ្យមាន ឯករាជ្យ ផ្តាច់់ខ្លួនចេញពី សហភាពសូវៀត
- ២០១៤ សង្រ្គាម អ៊ុយក្រែន រុស្សី រដ្ឋ Creama Luhansk Donesk ក្នុង តំបន់ Donbas ប្រទេស ផ្តាច់ខ្លួន និង ចូលរួមជាមួយ រុស្សី
- ២០២២ បច្ចុប្បន្ន សង្រ្កាម រុស្សី អ៊ុយក្រែនកំពុងបន្តនៅ តំបន់ Donbas
Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine from three directions: a map, a schedule of forces and a detailed forecast
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Putin's plan is not to seize all of Ukraine, but to occupy and annex the eastern, southern and central parts of the country. Russia has already deployed most of its troops to the border with Ukraine , is still sending additional troops to the front, has sent at least 20,000 troops to Belarus, and Russian special forces are already operating in Ukraine.Thomas Tyner , a former serviceman in the Italian army , writes about this in his article . He analyzes and covers open source intelligence and conflicts in the former Soviet Union after the Russian occupation of Crimea.
"Although Putin has not yet made a final decision on the scale of the invasion, Biden is right in his assessment of the inevitability of the invasion," Tyner wrote in an essay to his article.
He adds that the following scenario is based on the maximum plan for Russia's invasion, which was presented to the Allies in late November 2021, as well as an analysis of Western intelligence circulated by the Allied forces and infiltrated in early January 2022 before Russia's build-up in Belarus.
"Until this week, several units were still missing, but now Russia is gathering units of the National Guard needed to occupy cities and towns, transferring S-300B missile defense systems to Ukraine, deploying RH troops, deploying medical units, stockpiling ammunition and preparing airfields, the deployment of heavy siege artillery, the organization of logistics, the concentration of elite airborne and tank units near the border with Ukraine, "the article reads.
Putin's motives
Putin and his allies have made it clear that the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state is unacceptable to them, that the existence of a democratic Ukrainian nation, the very existence of the Ukrainian people, is intolerable to them. They have repeatedly stated that there are no Ukrainians, that people who feel like Ukrainians are nothing more than Russians or Poles.
Putin also does not tire of declaring Kyiv a Russian city owned by Russia, just as he declared that Crimea belonged to Russia before its annexation. Shorter:
Putin doesn't care that NATO guarantees that Ukraine will never join
Putin is not worried about the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine
Putin does not care about the establishment of a puppet regime in Kyiv
The talks that Russia demanded from the United States were not to continue beyond the first meeting. Putin wanted the United States to abandon his insane demands so that his propaganda could accuse the invasion of "America's refusal to negotiate." And since Biden has announced that both a minor invasion and a full invasion will lead to the same harsh sanctions, Putin has no reason to limit his war.
But in any case, Putin never wanted a limited war: he wanted to invade, occupy, annex and enslave Ukraine, and then Russify its people with all the terror, torture, murder and genocide that such a policy entails. He said so, he keeps telling us, and he recorded it and published it last summer.
Putin's forces
It is unreasonable to hope for anything else.
Russia has transferred every semi-combatant unit to the border with Ukraine. This is the largest accumulation of forces since the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. In all of NATO's history, it has never assembled as many troops as Russia does.
In addition to troops, Russia also accumulates huge amounts of ammunition in open fields near the border with Ukraine. Even from the Pacific coast, troops and ammunition were transported through Russia to the border with Ukraine - 9,000 km, similar to the transfer of troops from Rio de Janeiro to Los Angeles. Russia claims that all these units have been relocated for training. It is as if these troops cannot train on their landfills on the Pacific coast, as if these troops need 100,000 artillery shells for several days of training.
Echelons of Iskander ballistic missiles are moving towards Ukraine - it seems that 300+ missiles stored in the south-west of Russia are not enough for "training".
Russia is building pontoon bridges that the army needs only if it intends to cross a mile-wide river, such as the Dnieper.
Russia is dropping fighter jets, bombers and helicopters across the Urals and even from the Pacific coast, although two-thirds of Russia's air force is already within Ukraine's reach.
Russia is assembling all available landing ships in the Black Sea and, like Belarus, is calling in division-level reservists. This is not an exercise. This is not an exercise.
The goals of Putin's blows
Russia will invade Ukraine from the north, east and south.
There will be three operational strikes, each of which will be led by one of Russia's three army commands currently stationed near Ukraine:
1. Kyiv Operation - 1st Guards Tank Army
2. Dnieper operation - 20th Guards All-Army
3. Odesa operation - 8th Guards All-Army
The Kyiv and Odessa operations are the main areas, as control over Kyiv and the Russian corridor in Transnistria are the main operational objectives .
As for the plans and preparations of the Ukrainian defense, known and anticipated, none of them will be discussed here.
No one wants to help Putin, and it would be better if Russian soldiers learned about Ukrainian defense training only when they came under Ukrainian fire.
Before the invasion, Russia will set a false precedent as an excuse: either Putin's military will attack Russia, or Putin's special services will launch a chemical attack on Donbass. It is quite appropriate that Putin's Defense Minister Shoigu has already publicly blamed the CIA if this happens. As soon as Putin's propaganda has videos of "Russian" corpses, then the Russian military will coincide by coincidence and conveniently put in combat readiness on Ukraine's borders.
First, Russia will:
- fire rockets and artillery at Ukrainian positions along the border and on the front line in the Donbas;
- fires ballistic missiles at Ukrainian control and monitoring centers;
- strike long-range missiles at air defense positions in Ukraine;
- launch a cyber attack, which will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian IT infrastructure, communications and electricity networks;
- destroy the runways of airports with ballistic missiles;
- razes to the ground government buildings in Kyiv with Iskander missiles; will disconnect Ukraine from the Internet
- Then the Russian Air Force will strike at military positions, bases, depots and connections between Russia and the line from Korosten to northern Moldova.
First, Russia will:
- fire rockets and artillery at Ukrainian positions along the border and on the front line in the Donbas;
- fires ballistic missiles at Ukrainian control and monitoring centers;
- strike long-range missiles at air defense positions in Ukraine;
- launch a cyber attack, which will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian IT infrastructure, communications and electricity networks;
- destroy the runways of airports with ballistic missiles;
- razes to the ground government buildings in Kyiv with Iskander missiles; will disconnect Ukraine from the Internet
- Then the Russian Air Force will strike at military positions, bases, depots and connections between Russia and the line from Korosten to northern Moldova.
The purpose of this stage is to decapitate and demoralize Ukrainian forces, as well as to prevent the call of reservists.
On the first day of the war, Russian troops will cross the border.
Ukrainian formations will be hit by massive rocket and artillery fire and continuous air attacks.
Russia's armored advanced units will not occupy small towns and villages, but will advance into Ukrainian units, and then try to bind these units in the open so that Russian artillery and aircraft can destroy them.
Because the logistics of Russian troops depend heavily on the railways, every 100 km of captured undamaged railways will significantly improve Russian logistics, and so the Russians will occupy cities with key railway junctions.
The Russian army will also invade cities with Ukrainian military bases and depots to raid and destroy them.
This will be done so that Ukrainian volunteers, reservists and guerrillas cannot use the equipment left at the bases or weapons to attack the Russian rear.
Russia's armored front lines will target dams along the Dnieper because, unlike bridges, Ukraine cannot blow up these dams, as it will flood 10,000 towns and villages downstream and drown 10,000 people.
As soon as Russian troops reach the outskirts of Ukraine's largest cities, the Russians will surround and besiege them, as Putin's General Staff is well aware that the city battles are bloody, unpredictable and cause bad news.
Russia plans to surround and besiege Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv and Mariupol.
Hunger and freeze the population by cutting off electricity and gas, cutting off water and food supplies in the midst of severe Ukrainian winters.
The Russians speculate that as soon as civilians freeze and starve, and children and the elderly die, Ukrainian commanders will be forced to surrender.
If you believe that the Russian military will not starve and kill civilians, then you have ignored the Russian campaign in Syria, which has been ruthlessly bombing schools, kindergartens, hospitals and refugee camps for six years.
Russia does not plan to occupy all of Ukraine.
Putin's plan is to occupy and annex Eastern, Southern and Central Ukraine and to draw Russia's new western border somewhere west of the Korosten-Vinnytsia-Transnistria line.
At present, Russia does not intend to invade Western Ukraine, where resistance will be fiercest.
Moreover, the depleted, impoverished, state-centered state of Lviv will not threaten Putin's new empire and will be useful as a buffer for NATO countries.
As soon as Putin's troops reach Transnistria, he will also annex the region.
1. Kyiv operation
Operational goal: to isolate, surround and besiege Kyiv.
1A - cuts off Kyiv from western Ukraine.
• starting from Mazur, Belarus
• get to the railway and road junction in Korosten
• get to the railway and road junction in Zhytomyr
• raid and destroy the base of the 95th Assault Brigade in Zhytomyr
• raid and destroy the base of Su-27 fighters in Ozernoye south of Zhytomyr
• nomination to Berdychiv
• raid and destroy the base of the 26th Artillery Brigade in Berdychiv
• get to the railway and road junction in Kozyatyn
• take and repair the Mazur-Korosten-Zhytomyr-Fastiv railway
• secure the Russian ring of siege of Kyiv from the west - destroy Ukrainian reinforcements coming from western Ukraine
1B - besiege Kyiv from the west
• in advance from Gomel, Belarus
• nomination to Chernihiv
• raid and destroy the base of the 61st Light Brigade in Chernihiv.
• raid and destroy the base of the 1st Panzer Brigade in Goncharivskyi south of Chernihiv.
• Raid and destroy the 169th Training Center in Desna
• cross the Dnieper along the Vyshhorod River dam, which Ukraine cannot destroy as its explosion will flood the lower districts of Kyiv
• attack Fastiv and surround Kyiv from the west
• raid and destroy the headquarters of the Central Aviation Command and the MiG-29 fighter base in Vasylkiv, east of Fastiv
• besiege Kyiv from the west
1C - to besiege Kyiv from the east
• starting from Klintsy, Russia
• get to the railway and road junction in Bakhmach
• get to the railway and road junction in Nizhyn
• take Nizhyn airfield and (possibly) use it as an advanced operational base
• ensure the safety of the Bakhmach-Nizhyn-Kyiv railway
• in advance to Kyiv
• besiege Kyiv from the east
1D - cut off Kyiv from the south of Ukraine
• in advance from Bryansk, Russia
• get to the railway and road junction in Konotop
• raid and destroy the base of the 58th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Konotop
• ensure the safety of the Bryansk-Konotop-Bakhmach railway
• drive to the Pryluky interchange
• cross the Dnieper along the Kaniv dam
• advance to Bila Tserkva and cut off Kyiv from the south
• raid and destroy the base of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade in Bila Tserkva
• raid and destroy the base of the 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment in Bila Tserkva
• capture the Russian ring of siege of Kyiv from the south - destroy Ukrainian reinforcements arriving from the south of Ukraine
1E - fix the left flank of the Kyiv operation (optional)
• in advance from Kursk, Russia
• nomination for Sumy
• raid and destroy the base of the 27th Missile and Artillery Brigade in Sumy
• nomination to Lubny / Myrhorod
• raid and destroy the Su-27 fighter base in Myrhorod
• get to the Romodan railway junction
• advance to the Dnieper
• raid and destroy the base of the 156th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment in Zolotonosha
• ensure the safety of the Bakhmach-Romodan railway
• capture the Russian siege ring of Kyiv from the southeast - destroy Ukrainian reinforcements coming from the southeast of Ukraine
2. Dnieper operation
Operational goal: to besiege Kharkiv and the Dnieper, to occupy central Ukraine.
2A - to occupy central Ukraine
• advance payment from Belgorod, Russia
• get to the key railway and road junction in Poltava
• raid and destroy the base of the 46th Assault Brigade in Poltava
• raid and destroy the base of the 18th Army Aviation Brigade in Poltava
• cross the Dnieper along the Kremenchug dam
• raid and destroy the base of the 107th Missile and Artillery Regiment in Kremenchug
• nomination to Kropyvnytskyi
• raid and destroy the base of the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Kropyvnytskyi
• secure the railway dam Odnorobivka-Poltava-Romodan-Kremenchuk-Korystivka.
• destroy Ukrainian reinforcements coming from Western Ukraine
• on the occasion of the attack on Uman
2B - cut off Kharkiv, shackle Ukrainian forces in the Donbass
• advance payment from Belgorod, Russia
• raid and destroy the base of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade in Chuhuiv
• raid and destroy the base of the 203rd Aviation Training Brigade in Chuguev
• cut off Kharkiv from the west
• get to the railway and road junction on Lozova
• ensure the safety of the Odnorobivka-Lozova railway
• engage in and destroy Ukrainian units from brigades based in Severodonetsk (53rd Mechanized), Bakhmut (54th Mechanized) and Druzhkivka (81st Airmobile) and those employed on the Luhansk Front who may try to withdraw from the front and try to liberate Kharkiv.
• the next forces besiege Kharkiv
2C - cross the Dnieper and besiege Kryvyi Rih
• advance from Valuyka, Russia
• drive to the Izyum interchange
• get to the railway junction in Svyatogorsk
• ensure the safety of the Valuyka-Sviatogorsk railway
• nomination in the city of Dnipro
• raid and destroy bases of the 25th Airborne Brigade, the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and the 1039th Anti-Aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment in the Guards and Cherkasy East of the Dnieper
• attack and disable the base of the 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade in the Dnieper
• cross the Dnieper along the dam of the Kamyanskaya River
• nomination in Kryvyi Rih
• attack and disable the base of the 17th Panzer Brigade in Kryvyi Rih
• surround and besiege Kryvyi Rih
2D - to besiege the Dnieper (by DNR forces)
• in advance from Donetsk, Ukraine
• break through the front line of Ukraine
• to attack, surround and besiege the Dnieper
ឥឥឥឥ
3. Odesa operation
Operational goal: to lay siege to Odessa, to unite with Russian troops in Transnistria.
3A - to besiege Zaporizhia (by DNR forces)
• in advance from Donetsk, Ukraine
• break through the front line of Ukraine
• attack on Zaporizhia, the main logistics hub of Ukraine on the Donbas front
• attack and destroy the base of the 55th Artillery Brigade in Zaporizhia
• surround and besiege Zaporizhia from the east
• to consolidate a bridgehead across the Dnieper in Rozumivka south of Zaporizhia
• to build a pontoon bridge across the Dnieper in Rozumivka, as forcing the Zaporizhzhya river dam would require a battle across Zaporizhia
• surround and besiege Zaporizhia from the west
• raid and destroy the base of the 301st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment in Nikopol
3B is a land bridge to the Crimea
• in advance from Taganrog, Russia
• break through the front line of Ukraine
• separate forces of the DNR and reservists to surround and besiege Mariupol
• attack and destroy the base of the 56th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Mariupol
• get to the railway junction on Fedorovka
• get to the junction in Melitopol
• moving to Nova Kakhovka
• join the Russian troops coming from the Crimea
• cross the Dnieper along the Kakhovka river dam
• nomination to Kherson
• raid and destroy the base of the 11th Army Aviation Brigade in Kherson
• raid and destroy the base of the 208th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade in Kherson
• ensure the safety of the Crimea-Fedorivka-Nova Kakhovka-Snihurivka railway.
3C - occupy the coast and reach Transnistria
• promotion from Crimea, Ukraine
• break through the front line of Ukraine
• moving to Nova Kakhovka
• raid and destroy the base of the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Nova Kakhovka
• join the Russian troops coming from Donbass
• cross the Dnieper along the Kakhovka river dam
• nomination to Nikolaev
• attack and disable the base of the 36th Marine Brigade in Mykolayiv
• attack and destroy the base of the 79th Assault Brigade in Mykolayiv
• raid and destroy the Su-25 fighter base in Kulbakin, east of Mykolayiv
• send a detachment to destroy the base of the 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment in New Odessa
• surround and besiege Mykolayiv
• to consolidate the bridgehead across the Southern Bug to the north of Nikolaev
• build a pontoon bridge across the Southern Bug
• send a detachment to Kolosivka-Berezivka to protect the right flank
• while maintaining the railway bridges across the Ingul in Mykolayiv and across the Southern Bug in Pisky to ensure the safety of the Snihurivka-Kolosivka-Raukhivka-Odesa railway
• The main forces attack Koblevo
• join the Russian troops at the bridgehead in Koblev
3D - naval landing on Koblev
• By February 2, Russia will have 13 Alligator and Ropucha landing ships in the Black Sea, which together can carry up to 4,500 troops.
• departure from Sevastopol, Crimea
• storm the beach in Koblevo, using the Tiligul estuary to secure the northern flank of the bridgehead
• block the Ukrainian forces in Odessa (28th Mechanized Brigade, 35th Marine Brigade, 45th Assault Brigade) from the onset and obstruction of the Southern Bug
• The Black Sea Fleet supports forces in Koblevo with artillery fire and transports supplies and reinforcements to the bridgehead.
• The bridgehead connects with Russian troops coming from the Crimea
• attack on the northern outskirts of Odessa
• raid and destroy the base of the 28th Mechanized Brigade in the Black Sea
• besiege Odessa from the east
• Part of the combined forces are moving north to Ivanivka to join Russian and Transnistrian troops coming from Transnistria.
3E - attack from Transnistria
• engage Ukrainian troops in Odessa in artillery and border fire to prevent them from eliminating the bridgehead in Koblev
• as soon as Russian troops leave the bridgehead in Koblev, advance on Ivanivka north of Odessa and move parallel to the Black Sea coast south of Odessa
• to unite in Ivanivka with Russian troops coming from the east and from the Crimea
• raid and destroy the base of the 35th Marine Brigade in Dachny
• surround and besiege Odessa from the west
This is the maximum plan for a Russian invasion. The military exercises of the Western military have shown that the chances of Ukrainian troops defeating Russian armored vehicles in open combat are slim, as Russia's dominance in the air will be enormous.
Ukraine's chances of successfully fighting Russia depend on Ukraine's ability to activate, equip and disperse Ukraine's active and reserve forces quickly and effectively before Russia invades. He relies on Ukraine to disperse and disguise its forces to reduce the risk of losing entire battalions to Russian artillery and missile strikes.
It depends on Ukraine's ability to prevent Russia from using its railways. It rests on Ukraine's ability to ambush, isolate and destroy Russian units. It is based on Ukraine's ability to prevent Russia from forcing the Dnieper. This largely depends on the speed, quantity and type of weapons supplied by the West. It rests on the ability of Ukraine's population to withstand Russian bombing and siege. And first of all, as Finland showed in the winter of 1940-41, it is based on the ability of Ukrainians to kill Russian soldiers: 10,000 is good; 50,000 better; 100,000 killed Russian soldiers will bring peace.
… 16-19 probable start of the invasion:
accumulated ammunition stocks +
brought pipeline troops
arranged field hospitals +
deployed S-300V +
to equip warehouses of fuel and lubricants +
deployed special forces units +
units of the Rosguard are concentrated +
advanced-based helicopters +
Putin is ready.
Read also the assessment of the military-political columnist Alexander Kovalenko (blogger "Evil Odessan") about Ukraine's readiness to repel Russia's aggression from the air .
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